I wrote an article nearly three years ago outlining that view. Robert Rapier is a chemical engineer in the energy industry. But today, we are seeing a preview of the peak demand scenario. THIS PAST SPRING, coastlines around the globe took on the feel of an enemy invasion as hundreds of massive oil tankers overwhelmed seaports from South Africa to Singapore. The price of oil increased from negative $40 a barrel in April to around $40 a barrel by summer. In an oil-scarce world, we know there are sacrifices to be made in the pursuit of energy. Terry Spahr 10 April 2020 Reply. In that case, we will see the need for a much smaller oil industry. This version of the end of oil became very popular just before the shale oil boom. Today, the collapse in oil prices has pulled producers and poor producer nations down with it. Whoops! If that transition starts to happen in earnest, then the peak demand scenario that I thought we would see in maybe 2030 will be here a lot sooner than that. I wrote. The End of Oil Is Near By Antonia Juhasz | Aug 24 2020 THIS PAST SPRING, coastlines around the globe took on the feel of an enemy invasion as hundreds of massive oil tankers overwhelmed seaports from South Africa to Singapore. An upcoming boom in EV sales, notably in China, will bring to an end the “oil era,” according to a new study. Across the United States, more than 100,000 oil and gas and associated industry jobs were lost between March and May. But well before the pandemic arrived, the private-capital flows were weakening. When oil demand dropped during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, it bounced back strongly in 2010. Many are already declaring bankruptcy. Robert Rapier is a chemical engineer in the energy industry. People delighted in the newly clean air as airplanes, trucks, trains, and cars went idle. This advocacy has helped to shut down and delay fossil fuel projects through direct-action protest, bring about current and expected policies to cut demand and production, make sustainable transportation and renewable energy more accessible and affordable, and reduce the political and economic benefits of supporting the oil industry. The End of the Oil Age Apr 2, 2021 Edoardo Campanella For more than a century, the oil and gas industry has played a central role in almost every geopolitical development of consequence. In contrast to an agenda that doubles down on dirty fuels, a wealth of green recovery programs aim to keep fossil fuels in the ground as part of a just transition to a sustainable and equitable economy. Each partners regularly with the members of OPEC and Russia, and they have long shared the goal of burying the smaller frackers, blamed for unfettered (and unstoppable) oversupply. Not even close. The idea was neatly summarized in 2005 when the late Matt Simmons published Twilight in the Desert, in which he argued that oil production in Saudi Arabia was nearing terminal decline. But these newfound advantages for the majors represent a minor victory in a losing effort and are simply not enough to halt these companies’ own downward slides. The “The End of Oil?” article describes weak oil demand in recent years although it should be stated that global oil consumption increased over 5 million barrels/day from 2015 to 2019. The growth in demand for oil worldwide in 2015 was more than two and a half times greater than in 2019; it plunged precipitously between 2017 and 2019. In December 2019, Chevron was forced to write off $10 billion in losses. Forecasts for electric vehicles end up shaping the outlook for oil. The situation was dire enough that the research consulting firm McKinsey & Company warned oil-producing nations in 2019 to begin “sufficiently diversifying their economies for a post-[oil] peak demand world.”. Antonia Juhasz is an energy analyst, investigative journalist, and author specializing in oil. The oil majors were late to join the shale revolution, and they have spent years trying to buy up and push out smaller rivals, especially in the Permian Basin. They predict that the country has reached peak oil production and will never return to the record 13 million barrels of oil per day reached in November 2019. The book centers around one irrefutable fact: the global supply of oil is being depleted at an alarming rate. After reaching a record high of $148 a barrel in 2008, which helped spark the Great Recession, the price of a barrel of oil in November 2019 was just $60. . I don’t think so, but it is hard to say what the lingering impact on oil demand will be from the coronavirus pandemic. Locals and industry analysts alike used the word armada—typically applied to fleets of warships—to describe scenes such as when a group of tankers left Saudi Arabia en masse and another descended on China. . Shell announced that it will slash up to $22 billion from the value of its assets, and BP is selling assets worth $15 billion, including its petrochemical business, and eliminating 10,000 jobs worldwide. Share Tweet Email. The Pandemic, Peak Oil Demand, and the Oil Industry – By Michael Lynch and Ivan Sandrea . The world still needs oil during this crisis, but what we are seeing today is exactly what I think we would see in the peak demand scenario. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next.” One month later, she joined with author Naomi Klein to launch a Global Green New Deal. Instead, it says, prices will level off at $60 to $70 until the end of the decade. Big Oil, Russia, and Saudi Arabia seem to have scored at least one win. By signing up, you are opting in to receive periodic communications from the Sierra Club. Before you can use the last drop out of your THC cartridge you’ll have to get it out. 3. And that is likely where we are headed now, with oil prices in the $20s, and the timing of a recovery still uncertain. Like what you read? As the pandemic took hold, governments around the world implemented stay-at-home orders. Then, the price of oil skyrocketed to almost $150 a barrel, crushing consumers and consumer nations. In an oil-scarce world, we know there are sacrifices to be made in the pursuit of energy. First, we must acknowledge that falling demand and decreasing prices will not be enough to bring about a transition away from oil. For decades experts and commentators have been proclaiming the end of the oil era is nigh, or that ‘peak oil’ production had been reached. In April, President Trump met with US oil companies and then separately and individually with President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Why The Permian Basin May Not Be The Best Place To Store Nuclear Waste. From deep inside the heart of the US fracking boom, the Bismarck Tribune editorial board declared, “North Dakota must wean itself from oil dependence.”. There are also many ideas for how the United States can disentangle itself from the power of the oil industry. In June, Moody’s predicted that global oil demand may have peaked in 2019. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. The loss of investor confidence was also a result of global activism. Despite the contraction in demand, companies kept pumping larger amounts of oil. “HISTORICALLY, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew,” the novelist and essayist Arundhati Roy wrote in April. Scientists, inventors and activists present stern warnings and visionary solutions for the energy of tomorrow. If these policies prevail, the industry will rapidly shrink to a fraction of its former stature. Now COVID-19 appears to have provided the opening they’ve sought. ACROSS CALIFORNIA, MORE THAN 5 MILLION PEOPLE LIVE NEAR AN OIL OR GAS WELL, TWO-THIRDS OF WHOM ARE PEOPLE OF COLOR. He said, "The stone age came to an end, not for lack of stones, and the oil age will end, but not for lack of oil." The Freedom From Fossil Fuels platform—crafted by Governor Jay Inslee of Washington State and later adopted by Senator Elizabeth Warren—and its plans for securing environmental and climate justice (combined with the Frontlines Climate Justice Executive Action Platform from the progressive think tank Demos) may provide the most comprehensive road map for navigating a managed decline. A massive oversupply, a slew of indebted and overleveraged companies, wary investors, and a hostile public: All of the signs were there of a bubble ready to burst. Nearly a decade of organizing around the demand that major institutions divest themselves of fossil fuel stocks had resulted in an estimated $11 trillion worth of commitments to sell off oil, gas, and coal holdings by late 2019. Panic jolted the industry. Rather, peak oil is the moment when conventional oil production can no longer be increased, regardless of price. Chevron is cutting about 6,000 workers worldwide, and ExxonMobil, after taking a $3 billion write-down in May, announced that it could drop as many as 7,500 workers in the United States alone. By 2019, the fossil fuel industry ranked dead last among major investment sectors in the United States. The International Monetary Fund can help by expanding its recent decision to provide debt relief to struggling nations. Please email, Ever wonder what hiking trails are the most dangerous, how to throw a vegan barbecue, or whether to use a paper towel or a hand dryer? In front of the giant Amazon Falcon oil tanker—which had been docked in the bay for weeks, loaded up with Chevron oil—they unfurled a banner reading, “Oil Is Over! It's the question of our generation: Can we find a sustainable alternative to oil? For example, the government could provide financial support for or hire oil and gas workers to shut in and clean up abandoned wells, and oil and gas pipeline workers—whose skills are agnostic as to what flows through the pipes—could rebuild and maintain failing water and sewage lines. In the end, what needs to be done to get Nigeria moving developmentally upward, in the new normal of low oil price, is not a secret. It is clear that the oil industry will not recover from COVID-19 and return to its former self. The Greenpeace activists are right. The world’s leading petrostates took advantage of the moment to ensure their own survival. Robert has 25 years of international engineering experience in the chemicals, oil and gas, and renewable. THE OIL INDUSTRY is in such dire straits today because of the multiple crises it has faced since well before the pandemic. This article was funded by the Sierra Club Foundation. Although Energy Intelligence analysts predict that the United States has reached its peak of oil production, their projections anticipate that some 10 million barrels of oil a day could be produced here through 2040. During the past decade, the US fracking industry lost $300 billion yet was able to continue producing, thanks to the financial backing of government subsidies, banks, hedge funds, and other investors. After production fell in the last year of the Obama administration, Trump’s “American energy dominance” policy spurred a historic ramp-up. Subscribe to our magazine by becoming a Sierra Club member today. This amount is incompatible with the needs of social justice and public health, the Paris Agreement, and the goal of keeping average global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. The end of oil will precede and be a far greater catastrophic event in altering civilization than climate change. As Sarah Bloom Raskin, a former Federal Reserve governor and former deputy secretary of the Treasury, has written, “Even in the short term, fossil fuels are a terrible investment. As Michael Liebreich, the founder and senior contributor of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, recently put it on Twitter Recent months have seen a growing crescendo of claims that a peak in oil demand may be near, or even be past. The most pressing challenge facing oil producers today is the collapse of prices. In the United States, the frackers finally caved: Production fell by 3 million barrels a day in May, with virtually all the reductions coming from the shale—or fracking—regions of the country. Also, wealthier, more diversified economies—led by the United States, Canada, and the UK—in which the social and economic costs of shuttering fossil fuel sectors are the least, would act most swiftly while simultaneously assisting poorer countries in their transition. The “The End of Oil?” article describes weak oil demand in recent years although it should be stated that global oil consumption increased over 5 million barrels/day from 2015 to 2019. The oil glut quickly became a tsunami. Consumption of fossil fuels, especially gasoline, collapsed, and with it the price of oil. Read This Next. Between 2012 and 2017, the oil majors’ profits collapsed. Even as investors were abandoning oil company stocks, a flood of cheap money and easy credit had been keeping the industry afloat. Fast forward a few years, and a new version of the end of oil began to take hold. To lock in the production cuts that have already been implemented and go beyond them requires keep-it-in-the-ground policies that are based on a “managed decline” in oil production. The divestment effort spawned a sister movement calling on banks and hedge funds to stop financing fossil fuel projects. And her recent cover story for Sierra magazine is “The End of Oil Is Near,” along with another report, “Bailout: Billions of Dollars of Federal COVID-19 Relief Money Flow to the Oil Industry.” COVID-19 has sped up a process already well underway, the analysts contend: Oil basins in the United States outside the Bakken Formation in North Dakota and the Texas–New Mexico Permian are turning into permanent “fringe” basins. The fall in new drilling led to a collapse in jobs. There have been two general schools of thought about how it will ultimately end. That outcome is very different. The coronavirus pandemic has gutted demand, resulting in the current surplus, but it merely exacerbated a problem that’s been plaguing the oil industry for years: the incessant overproduction of a product that the world is desperately trying to wean itself from, with growing success. But the OPEC+ production cuts wouldn’t take effect until May, and, in the short term, oil production in many countries surged. But recall that in the midst of overproduction, both the price of oil and demand growth had been dropping, creating a vicious cycle in which producers had to sell more oil to make the same or even less money. While the production slowdown by the OPEC+ nations is a temporary agreement, oil analysts Casey Merriman and Abhi Rajendran of Energy Intelligence expect a good deal of the US oil production cuts to be permanent. I generally agree with this article. Paul Roberts is the author of The End of Oil, a finalist for the New York Public Library's Helen Bernstein Book Award in 2005. Not only have some existing wells been closed in; fewer new ones are being drilled as well. You may opt-out by. Yet even at that bargain-basement price, there were few takers. As their fortunes diminished, oil and gas companies and many oil-producing countries tried to drill their way out of financial crisis. In an October 2019 commentary for Bloomberg, Noah Smith, a leading energy analyst and finance professor, declared, “The age of oil is coming to a close.”. That’s one big takeaway from a recent report by CARE International, A years-long struggle to clean up the nation’s power grid remains unsettled, Oil companies stick to procedural delay as the planet runs out of time, Whoops! In this version, there is no easy replacement for oil, so oil prices skyrocket above $100 a barrel (bbl) as people seek to maintain mobility. On May 12, Greenpeace activists sailed into San Francisco Bay to issue a challenge to the public. Global indexes measuring the value of the largest oil companies hit a 50-year low in 2018; of the world’s 100 biggest stocks, only six were oil producers. By 2018, the global oil supply had outstripped demand, causing a glut. There have been two general schools of thought about how it. In the journal Climate Policy, Sivan Kartha, co-leader of the Stockholm Environment Institute’s Gender and Social Equality Programme, and Greg Muttitt, former research director of Oil Change International, recently laid out a path for a managed phaseout of fossil fuel extraction centered on equity and climate justice. The result of the organizing and advocacy is death by a thousand cuts, leaving behind an industry producing too much of a commodity that is of shrinking value. Monaldi explains that the oil market is treading into uncharted territory: “The situation right now is unprecedented. Under the weight of all that oil, in April the price of oil crashed to negative $40 dollars a barrel—the lowest amount in history. This is the exact opposite of the peak oil argument, where oil prices surge as supply starts to fall. While the need for oil won’t end soon, growth in demand will drop by 70%, the study forecast, while the switch to renewable energy could save hundreds of billions of dollars, especially for emerging markets, reports TheDetroitBureau.com. The end of the use of oil and gas is a long way out, but the end of traditional exploration is within easy reach and sight. The Pandemic and the End of Oil? So is the end of oil upon us? “It’s been critical for Black people, Indigenous people, and people of color to stop the money pipeline,” says Reverend Lennox Yearwood Jr., president of the Hip Hop Caucus. Between March and May, the amount of oil “stored” at sea nearly tripled, and it has yet to abate in many parts of the world. Corporate profits and market values, as well as investor returns, have been in a nosedive. Thanks for clearly articulating the issue. Something went wrong. While government bailout programs and subsidies could provide the lifeline the industry needs to stay afloat, such policies will likely throw good money after bad. Read This Next. The End of Oil provides a compelling analysis of the current oil and coal dominated energy industry and a stark preview of the looming energy revolution. These financiers, he argues, “would rather invest in our destruction, in our genocide, than in our lives and our future.” After spending trillions propping up the industry, most major North American and European banks decreased their funding for fossil fuels between 2017 and 2018. In North Dakota, production fell by 17 percent in that March-to-April period. The most pressing challenge facing oil producers today is the collapse of prices. What form it ultimately takes, or whether it will even survive, is now very much an open question. For the first nine months of 2020, car sales cratered. Oil company revenues were skyrocketing during this period, and energy stocks were one of the best-performing sectors. Directed by Tom Radford, Niobe Thompson. Watch Now Checking list. Led by President Trump and Republicans in Congress, oil and gas companies in the United States had, by June, received billions of dollars in both direct federal COVID-19 benefits and indirect payouts through new Federal Reserve pandemic-relief spending, according to my own calculations for Sierra. However, as new technologies, such as shale oil extraction techniques, have been developed, production of oil has continued to climb, albeit with a tumultuous dip in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. This tanker invasion is only one piece of a dangerous buildup in oil supply that is the result of an unprecedented global glut. This is good news for the largest oil companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell. Gasoline is back under a buck. The geopolitical and corporate machinations provide a stark demonstration of how, even when faced with the worst possible scenarios for demand, supply, and price, the oil industry simply will not stop drilling unless it is forced to do so. This version of the end of oil became very popular just before the shale oil boom. Not an April fool. The state of Oklahoma pronounced oil to be “economic waste.” Texas briefly considered mandating production quotas. . So some oil-producing countries are playing safe and preparing for the moment when they can no longer rely on oil. Brilliantly reported from around the globe, The End of Oil brings the world situation into fresh and dramatic focus for business and general readers alike. To give you an idea, the largest decline in oil demand in the history of the oil industry was about 4 percent in 1981. But there are alternatives that take us in another direction: actions and policies to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels and over to a just, equitable, and sustainable economy based on localized renewable energy sources and sustainable transportation systems. They join some 55 oil companies that have announced plans to cut more than $37 billion from their pre-COVID 2020 spending budgets. The idea was neatly summarized in 2005 when the late Matt Simmons published Twilight … This pandemic seems destined to change our world in a number of ways, and some of those ways involve lower oil demand. As goes the price of oil, so too goes the global economy—and we’re dangerously close to repeating the mistakes that led to the 2008 global financial crisis. “The energy industry that emerges from the crisis will be significantly different from the one before,” argued the International Energy Agency in May, before making an aggressive pitch for a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” for governments worldwide to reboot their economies with $3 trillion in investments that will move us away from fossil fuels and toward “a more resilient and cleaner-energy future.”. Electric cars didn’t brake for Covid. So some oil-producing countries are playing safe and preparing for the moment when they can no longer rely on oil. Oil prices have so far risen recently to nearly $50 a barrel, but with the pandemic still keeping the pressure on oil demand, it is unlikely that prices are headed much higher in the next year. Shortly thereafter, OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, Bahrain, Mexico, and another half dozen producers) reached a global agreement to cut oil supply. : “I've always said the end-game for oil is not when it reaches $200/barrel, it's when it settles at $20/barrel.”. In March, US oil production increased even as Saudi Arabia and Russia entered into a price war that pushed the price of oil down even further. I am not so sure that’s going to happen this time. There’s the status quo path, in which we are so overcome by the disasters brought about by our oil reliance—calamities in the forms of war, political upheaval, and the climate catastrophes of worsening drought, floods, hurricanes, fires, and disease—that we are unable to consume oil. Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden admitted during Thursday night’s final presidential debate that he going to end the oil industry if elected president. And it would be highly dependent on whether U.S. shale oil production continued to grow. It's a fantasy,” Wilkinson said. To save ourselves, we must unwind from oil. There were just 10 rigs in North Dakota fracking new wells in June versus 61 the year before. Posted on February 11, 2021, 11:33. Share Tweet Email. In Colorado, oil production in April was just one-sixth of the volume in March. We live in a world that remains hardwired to oil. Forecasts for electric vehicles end up shaping the outlook for oil. electric vehicles (EVs) and ride-sharing are predicted to be two key factors that will make oil obsolete. These funds can be increased and should include targeted support for efforts in poor countries to keep their oil in the ground. Scientists, inventors and activists present stern warnings and visionary solutions for the energy of tomorrow. Painting an ominous picture for the Wall Street Journal in 2019, Raoul LeBlanc of IHS Markit said that oil companies “don’t have the ability to borrow anymore.”. A 202-2021 Bertha Fellow in investigative Journalism working with a global team of journalists on fossil fuels biomass! Many oil-producing countries tried to drill their way out of your THC cartridge you ll. Industry jobs were lost between March and may candidate for President pledged to end government subsidies for fuels! During a Biden administration © 2020 Sierra Club.The Sierra Club Seal is a more intentional, thoughtful,! Version of the best-performing sectors best-performing sectors analyst, investigative journalist, the! To pay back lenders and stockholders—or, in the chemicals, oil and gas and! As the pandemic has brought into sharp relief the existing fragilities within the industry! Takes, or nearly 30 million barrels a day ( nearly 13 percent ) world for well over century... 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