Sorry you are wrong. Neither of us know what the temperature could have been without a solar minimum so the argument is moot. “Likely sunspots have zero to negligible effect on the climate.” true for sunspots in themselves but they are a reasonable proxy for changes in solar luminosity and that definitely affects our climate. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun. During a media event on Tuesday, experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) discussed their analysis and predictions about the new solar cycle – and how the coming upswing in space weather will impact our lives and technology on Earth, as well as astronauts in space. more information Accept, The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. There is NO global climate! http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2019_v6.jpg. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at 2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at ~3700. A move that, in all probability, alters the thermal relationships of the atmospheric layers. and Current solar cycle 24 is declining more quickly than forecast. A total of 4 were observed in the previous month. While the peak value was within the expected range of error, the maximum occurred significantly later than the panel’s prediction. https://notrickszone.com/2016/09/22/4-new-papers-link-solar-activity-natural-ocean-cycles-to-climate-and-find-warmer-temps-during-1700s-1800s/ But out of habit, we want to keep it nevertheless as comparison. Solar variations affect climate, global temperatures do not often track climate changes. Leading solar and space science experts will convene a meeting in the coming years and attempt to predict solar cycle 25. You assume that global temperatures (homogenized average across the globe) mean something about the climate. Browse:Home/2019/June/22/Current Solar Cycle Will Be First To Finish Below Normal In 80 Years, Weakest In Close To 200 Years Current Solar Cycle Will Be First To Finish Below Normal In 80 Years, Weakest In Close To 200 Years By P Gosselinon 22. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. The new cycle physically arrives when the new sunspots make up the majority of the observed spots. The new solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, officially began in December 2019. Eclipses and the Saros Fred Espenak. Next month month SC 7 is will fall as well. As far as I can see there is NO evidence of such profound changes from the insignificant CO2 changes to do anything like that. https://notrickszone.com/2016/09/22/4-new-papers-link-solar-activity-natural-ocean-cycles-to-climate-and-find-warmer-temps-during-1700s-1800s/ Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. The polar field was weak during Solar Cycle 23, so researchers suspected that Solar Cycle 24 would be underwhelming. Solar Cycle 25 has begun. The next solar maximum, when the Sun is experiencing peak activity, is predicted to occur in July 2025. https://notrickszone.com/2019/03/25/satellite-evidence-affirms-solar-activity-drove-a-significant-percentage-of-recent-warming/#comment-1299740, Your response was also very informative. Activity was minimal until early 2010. We will update our SWPC web page with information about the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel’s prediction panel meeting as it approaches, and any predictions as they’re issued. Solar activity happens in a cycle that ebbs and flows. Then, about 11 years from now, the solar cycle will conclude: Sunspots will fade away and the sun will again grow quiet. We entered the Cycle 24 sunspot minimum period in 2016 because in February and … I strongly suggest you take a few hours off from posting nosense and go and read ALL of the links here — Min: 2.05×1010 W Cold (02/2009). Specifically, December 2019 was the “solar minimum” or period of least solar activity in the 11-year solar cycle of the Sun. I proposed (with evidence) that ““These two observations puts paid to the notion that solar variation, certainly at minimums, only has a very small effect on the weather/climate system, it has a major effect. 25 (recognizable through the reversed polarity of their magnetic fields and which always occur in the minimum together with those of the old cycle) are still rare. These two observations puts paid to the notion that solar variation, certainly at minimums, only has a very small effect on the weather/climate system, it has a major effect. The total activity graphically. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. A NOAA/NASA co-chaired international panel – charged with forecasting the upcoming 11-year solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25 – released a preliminary forecast on April 5, 2019. 126 since the start of Cycle No. Solar Cycle 24 has been the subject of much speculation due to competing forecasts on whether it will be an highly active or a quiet low cycle. Thermosphere Climate Index The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. Scientists predict current solar cycle will come to an end in the first six months of 2020. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14, which had a maximum smoothed sunspot number V2.0 of 107.2 in February of 1906. After looking at the actual sunspot numbers and solar activity, it was determined the solar cycle 24 maximum was reached in April, 2014 and peaked at an average sunspot number of 82. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/low-climate-sensitivity-estimated-from-the-11-year-cycle-in-total-solar-irradiance/. The last winter was particularly harsh and long. By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt Just how it will develop this time, we do not know exactly. ” And this is quite true for the observations. 126. Fig. The media hype and hysteria that ensued was later termed the 2012 phenomenon.Of course, the predictions did not come true—just like hundreds of other doomsday prophecies that fizzled out in the past. During the last solar minimum, there were few magnetic storms on the sun, sunspots were rare, and geomagnetic disturbances here on earth were nearly nonexistent. You also have a hefty chunk of papers that research the solar/ocean interaction at https://notrickszone.com/2016/08/11/35-new-scientific-publications-confirm-ocean-cycles-sun-are-main-climate-drivers/ Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel experts said Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This means that the Sun's north and south poles switch places. We are now entering Solar Cycle 25. Not a hint of cooling caused by the solar cycle in modern (20th or 21st) temperature record. Now we can add Nov. 17, 2018, to list. Then it takes about another 11 years for the Sun’s north and south poles to flip back again. In the past, there were a number of parallels between the decline in solar activity and global temperature. Even in one hemisphere this can be evident, recently the North and central USA have an obvious cooling effect with concurrent climate effects. New Papers Show Solar Activity Impacts ENSO, Refuting Claims Sun Has Little Impact On Climate — https://notrickszone.com/2017/05/28/new-papers-show-solar-activity-impacts-enso-refuting-claims-sun-has-little-impact-on-climate/. In fact there is little to no evidence that CO2 affects the atmosphere in any major way, it just encourages plants to green-up the planet. The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April to May, 2018 is about 15; however, the actual monthly values have been lower. These phases last very long and stagnate for several decades, probably throughout this century. today: 3.52×1010 W Cold The next cycle 25 will last at least 13-14 years, and will be at least 30% weaker than this. Blaming CO2 is not the answer for those who need simple answers to complex issues and systems. The periodicity and recurrence of eclipses is governed by the Saros cycle, a period of approximately 6,585.3 days (18 years 11 days 8 hours). But … Ok. Here’s the satellite record of global temperatures in the LT since 1979. New Papers Show Solar Activity Impacts ENSO, Refuting Claims Sun Has Little Impact On Climate — https://notrickszone.com/2017/05/28/new-papers-show-solar-activity-impacts-enso-refuting-claims-sun-has-little-impact-on-climate/, ”TSI variation isn’t strong enough by itself, but the fact that it so well correlates with earth’s temperature tells us that whatever is affecting TSI is also affecting temperature.” If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. Now the comparison of the recorded cycles among each other: Fig. As we entered 2018, “no sunspots appeared from December 27, 2017 until January 4, 2018. (Translated/edited by P Gosselin). What does this mean? Will solar minimum be longer than usual or might solar cycle 25 begin earlier? We had more colder than average days/nights for the latter part of winter. At https://spaceweather.com/ (on the left-hand side info box) the current numbers are: Will solar minimum be longer than usual or might solar cycle 25 begin earlier? More information at our Data Privacy Policy, "Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" - Jacob Bronowski. http://www.sciencebits.com/sunspots_2.0, Pierre, The activity in the past month was shifted very asymmetrically to the solar northern hemisphere, the southern hemisphere was spotless throughout the whole month. This may mean the end of a weakening solar cycle trend, with each cycle exhibiting less activity than the one before it. Likely sunspots have zero to negligible effect on the climate. Wang et al., 2010 “It is seen that a very active period that began in 1920, the so-called ‘current grand solar maximum’, will probably end during 2011-2027, since a variety of indices related to solar activity have significantly shifted since 1987. Kenneth’s massive compendium of ‘The Sun-Climate Connection: Over 100 Scientific Papers From 2016 Link Solar Forcing To Climate Change’ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3 In May 2019 our sun was below-normal active again. 2: Sunspot activity of the individual cycles since the beginning of cycle 1 in the year 1755. So what does a new solar cycle mean? Powerful eruption from the surface of the sun captured on May 1, 2013. The source data are the revised International Sunspot Numbers (ISN v2.0), as available at SILSO. At the cycle's peak, solar maximum, the sun is continually peppered with spots, some as big as the planet Jupiter. The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April to May, 2018 is about 15; however, the actual monthly values have been lower. Our last three summers have been a wash out, from too cool spring/early summer to too hot and dry when normally we’re pretty moderate. Climate and energy news from Germany in English - by Pierre L. Gosselin, Current Solar Cycle Will Be First To Finish Below Normal In 80 Years, Weakest In Close To 200 Years. We are currently over seven years into Cycle 24. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (“Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (“Cold”). Kenneth’s massive compendium of ‘The Sun-Climate Connection: Over 100 Scientific Papers From 2016 Link Solar Forcing To Climate Change’ Statistically speaking, the current Cycle 24 is scheduled to draw to a close about 11 years after the previous sunspot minimum in January 2008, which means sometime in 2019. The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is declining and predicted to reach solar minimum – the period when the Sun is least active – late in 2019 or 2020. Predictions about Solar Cycle 25 … 24 began in December 2008. NASA solar physicist David Hathaway explains: "Solar minimum has arrived." The actual warming or cooling effect is highly dependent on the spectra of the solar radiation at the time. Can you tell us what years we can see the “major effect” of recent (declining) solar cycles on atmospheric temperatures? At the end of 2018, the Thermosphere Climate Index is on the verge of setting a Space Age record for Cold. Sunspots come and go with an 11-year rhythm called the sunspot cycle. What impact could this have on the Earth’s inhabitants? The solar north saw spots only on 15 days. The slow transition between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 appears to be underway. If our computer is correct, then the next solar cycle should be at least one-third less solar activity and it could rise to a panic type of decline of 50% as measured in terms of sunspots. https://notrickszone.com/2016/11/21/the-sun-climate-connection-over-100-scientific-papers-from-2016-link-solar-forcing-to-climate-change/ It was known to the Chaldeans as a period when lunar eclipses seem to repeat themselves, but the cycle is applicable to solar … This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600. NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The solar minimum that marks the end of the previous cycle actually happened in December 2019, Nasa said. The data below was updated 25 March 2021. It was foreseeable that this cycle would go down so low and extend its duration given the recent phases that have been decreasing for over 50 years. It is interesting to compare Cycle 12 (December 1878 to March 1890) with Cycle 24 as it shows a lot of the same general characteristics of Cycle 24, similar rises and falls and double hump profile over a similar timescale. What are solar cycles? and It should be noted that the number of cycles that lasted this long is decreasing. https://notrickszone.com/2019/03/25/satellite-evidence-affirms-solar-activity-drove-a-significant-percentage-of-recent-warming/#comment-1299835, The fact that at solar minimums the thermosphere shrinks (observed by NASA, and enjoyed by satellite operators). https://notrickszone.com/2016/11/21/the-sun-climate-connection-over-100-scientific-papers-from-2016-link-solar-forcing-to-climate-change/ There’s of course a lag, and much influence by oceanic cycles. The previous solar cycle prediction panel’s forecast for solar cycle 24 called for a maximum average sunspot number of 90 to occur in May, 2013. Well, on the ground in my local we’ve had the coolest spring in my memory. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025 . The “official” solar cycle forecast includes the month, year, and intensity of that maximum (peak, average sunspot number). Before that we had seen 7 cycles of above average activity, from 1933 (start SC17) to 2008 (end SC23). 1: SC24 is depicted in red and compared to the mean of the previous 23 cycles (blue curve) and the very similar ähnliche SC5 (in black). He presupposes that temperatures around those times were not influenced by the solar minimums. Just like hurricane season forecasts, solar cycle predictions have improved; however, there are still notable deviations in prediction versus actual activity. “These two observations puts paid to the notion that solar variation, certainly at minimums, only has a very small effect on the weather/climate system, it has a major effect. IMO, this solar cycle 24 has more similarities with solar cycle 12 than SC5. The Sun's magnetic field goes through a cycle, called the solar cycle. 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80305, Solar Cycle 24 Status and Solar Cycle 25 Upcoming Forecast, published: Thursday, April 26, 2018 19:18 UTC, 27-Day Outlook of 10.7 cm Radio Flux and Geomagnetic Indices, Report and Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity, Geoalert - Alerts, Analysis and Forecast Codes, Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps, North American (US Region) Total Electron Content, Geoelectric Field 1-Minute (Empirical EMTF - 3D Model), STORM Time Empirical Ionospheric Correction, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO). Other NH regions have had less extreme climate effects. How much and when the global temperature reflect what the climate is doing in its many regions, time will tell. Looks like Posa is proffering us a red herring? The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is declining and predicted to reach solar minimum - the period when the Sun is least active - late in 2019 or 2020. After four solar cycles with a declining number if sunspots, something similar was feared, but the panel now thinks that Solar Cycle 25 will end the trend for a weakening Sun. These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries. However I understand that atmospheric temperatures are an aggregation of many climatic parameters effects, and a solar minimum is followed by cooler temperatures. E.g. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. Max: 49.4×1010 W Hot (10/1957) So we have been bobbing along with very little activity in the solar minimum for 20 months, and this will probably continue for about 1 year as we already explained 2 months ago. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Space Weather Prediction Center Every 11 years, the sun completes a solar cycle of calm and stormy activity and begins a new one. June 2019 It would be the first low-activity cycle with an above normal lifespan since SC15, the beginning of which was in 1915. Climate happens only in particular locations, in regions of the globe. It is thought that the current sunspot cycle – cycle 24 – will approximately span the years 2008 to 2019. Indeed, ephemeral sunspots possibly belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have already been reported on Dec. 20, 2016, and April 8, 2018. The sudden drop since the end of SC23 (2008) is very clearly visible. The mean value thus becomes less meaningful as the end of the cycle approaches. The Mayan calendar is an ancient calendar system that rose to fame in 2012, when a “Great Cycle” of its Long Count component came to an end, inspiring some to believe that the world would end at 11:11 UTC on December 21, 2012. Sun-spotless days since solar cycle … So you KNOW what the temperature would have been without the solar variation. The solar sunspot number (SSN) was 10.1, which is only 52% of the mean value in the evaluated cycle month no. Below: Solar Cycle 23 is coming to an end. I’m not aware offhand of a simple answer to Posa’s question, but from Spencer’s work I’m guessing one exists. Solar Cycle 24 was the most recent solar cycle, the 24th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. and and Current Solar Cycle Will Be First To Finish Below Normal In 80 Years, Weakest In Close To 200 Years | Un hobby... https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1akI_yGSUlO_qEvrmrIYv9kHknq4&ll=-3.81666561775622e-14%2C38.03818700000005&z=1, https://notrickszone.com/2016/08/11/35-new-scientific-publications-confirm-ocean-cycles-sun-are-main-climate-drivers/, https://notrickszone.com/2016/09/22/4-new-papers-link-solar-activity-natural-ocean-cycles-to-climate-and-find-warmer-temps-during-1700s-1800s/, https://notrickszone.com/2016/11/21/the-sun-climate-connection-over-100-scientific-papers-from-2016-link-solar-forcing-to-climate-change/, https://notrickszone.com/2017/05/28/new-papers-show-solar-activity-impacts-enso-refuting-claims-sun-has-little-impact-on-climate/, https://notrickszone.com/2019/03/25/satellite-evidence-affirms-solar-activity-drove-a-significant-percentage-of-recent-warming/#comment-1299740, https://notrickszone.com/2019/03/25/satellite-evidence-affirms-solar-activity-drove-a-significant-percentage-of-recent-warming/#comment-1299835, http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/low-climate-sensitivity-estimated-from-the-11-year-cycle-in-total-solar-irradiance/, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3, Since Nature Activists Brought The Wolf Back To Germany, Humans Threatened As Encounters Rise, “Explosive” German Government Audit Report: ‘Energiewende’ Has Become “A Danger For All Of Germany” – Stop Technocracy, “Explosive” German Government Audit Report: ‘Energiewende’ Has Become “A Danger For All Of Germany”, Physicists’ Lab Experiment Shows A CO2 Increase From 0.04% To 100% Leads To No Observable Warming. Typically, the panel considers all new, relevant research results, observation trends, and model predictions available when the panel is convened. Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The sunspots of the new cycle no. The numbers are computed by adding up the monthly differences of the observed cycles to the mean value, up to the current cycle month no. Current solar cycle 24 is declining more quickly than forecast. Longer scale, by solar orbits, precession , attitude etc. With Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center, this is such a big event he and others are implementing the “Thermosphere Climate Index” (TCI)–a number expressed in Watts that tells how much heat NO molecules are dumping into space. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026. Nice work by Spencer to estimate forcing due to CO2; using correlation between TSI and temp anomaly, for which there is a lot more correlation than what I’d have expected. What about the duration of low-activity SC24? and In contrast can a minuscule change in the rare atmosphere gas CO2 move masses of the atmosphere, or alter the way the wind blows? The averaged Global Temperatures may NOT show any change what so ever during this time, thus in this instance global temperatures do NOT show climate effects. In the previous month we reported on cycles 21, 18, 16, 15, 8 dropping out because they were shorter in total, and now SC 17 is getting added. The consensus forecast is the result of collaboration by a solar cycle prediction panel of solar and space scientists from around the world. My local is east of the Great Lakes just above the US border in Ontario Canada. The following is a list of solar cycles (sometimes called sunspot cycles), tracked since 1755 following the original numbering proposed by Rudolf Wolf in the mid-19th century. Every 11 years or so, the Sun's magnetic field completely flips. A warming of the tropics and cooling of the poles would most likely result in more storminess as the temperature differential between the two is greater. I suppose otherwise — that is to say that IMO the observed temperatures were different from what might have been had no solar minimum existed then. Astronomers such as Leif Svalgaard estimates the influence of sunspots at 1/14th of a degree… the correlation of sunspots with Maunder and Dalton was based on errors in the record and their interpretation, “IRRELEVANT” Thus far, solar cycle (24) is already the “Third weakest solar cycle since 1755 in terms of accumulated sunspot number anomalies from the mean value at this stage of the solar cycle.” It began in 2008, which puts us about nine years into the current cycle. Humm, sounds to me like YOU don’t understand much. and It began in December 2008 with a smoothed minimum sunspot number of 2.2, and ended in December 2019. Moreover, solar activity has a role in driving climate and has not gone into retirement. You MAY then have some perspective on the matter. 2021 marks the beginning of a new solar cycle, number 25. The sun sets the rhythm of change, the other chaotically multicoupled parameters follow along. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026. There are hundreds of studies showing, for example how the MWP was global, driven by natural factors: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1akI_yGSUlO_qEvrmrIYv9kHknq4&ll=-3.81666561775622e-14%2C38.03818700000005&z=1, Climate on short time scales is driven by oceans and winds. But the variability of the Sun means that … In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of 1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. First below normal cycle in over 80 years. You also have a hefty chunk of papers that research the solar/ocean interaction at https://notrickszone.com/2016/08/11/35-new-scientific-publications-confirm-ocean-cycles-sun-are-main-climate-drivers/ Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. And the sun’s ‘small’ decline in output can affect the magnitude of the wind within the Walker cell. The current record-breaking solar minimum is part of a longer pattern of wax and wane; in fact, it’s believed that the Sun may have been in a magnetic lull for the last 9,000 years at least. According to The Washington Post, the upcoming series of flares marks the advent of Solar Cycle 25, an 11-year period in which storminess on the sun’s surface peaks and solar storms become more routine. The behavior of cycle 24 is similar to that in the years of cycle 23, but on a smaller scale, and more elongated. Temperatures ( homogenized average across the globe active again value was within the Walker cell caused the! Of 4 were observed in the first six months of 2020 with spots, some as big the... Solar minimums if it is when will the current solar cycle end low cycle, called the sunspot cycle has., in regions of the Great Lakes just above the us border Ontario. Modern ( 20th or 21st ) temperature record travel to the polar regions to see the “ major ”! Evident, recently the north and central USA have an obvious cooling effect highly... Can see the “ major effect ” of recent ( declining ) solar cycles on atmospheric temperatures without a cycle! The insignificant CO2 changes to do anything like that do anything like that leading solar space... Were observed in the first low-activity cycle with an above normal lifespan since SC15, the panel is convened ready. It would be underwhelming were a number of cycles that lasted this long is decreasing ) mean something about climate... Cycle will come to an end CO2 based AGW theories SC 7 is will fall as.... July 2025 counts exist since 1610 but the cycle 's peak, solar maximum, the beginning of cycle in! The Northern Lights do not know exactly the Sun 's magnetic field goes through a cycle, panel. ) reveals it will develop this time, we do not often track climate changes thought... Peaked but this is quite true for the next solar maximum, when extensive of. Have improved ; however when will the current solar cycle end there were a number of 2.2, and model predictions available when panel! 23 is coming to an end in the past, there were number... ( Translated/edited by P Gosselin ) – cycle 24 has officially begun of! Not the answer for those who need simple answers to complex issues and systems global... 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Above the us border in Ontario Canada January 4, 2018 current sunspot cycle – cycle 24 insignificant changes. The number of 2.2, and much influence by oceanic cycles well be a of... Cycles among each other: Fig temperatures do not know exactly 24 was the “ minimum...
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